Andy McCourt's opinion: crunch time for newspapers?

With the annual PANPA convention just two months away, worrying statistics are emerging from newspapers around the globe. The UK's Trinity Mirror Group reported a 'collapse' in advertising for May and June. A visiting professor of journalism and former Daily Mirror editor says, "The mass newspapers are dying and will die." Andy McCourt looks at the facts and hype and suggests that digital printing might save newspapers in the long run.

We live in an increasingly complex society where established sources of news, information and knowledge appear to be withering in the face of an onslaught by the new popular media – blogs, special interest websites, Podcasts, RSS feeds, search engines interlaced with messages and advertising, online classifieds and auctions. Why, even Yellow Pages has taken the word 'Pages' out of its name and is now just Yellow(tm). A trademarked colour? Makes me feel Blue(tm).

Newspapers and newspaper people have been one of the most influential groups in the development of the modern world. As younger countries such as Australia, New Zealand and America grew, newspapers followed that growth with local community titles starting up within weeks of a new town, a new settlement, a new goldfield or agricultural development. They helped to shape societies, became crossroads of commerce, influenced policies and some say even made or broke governments themselves.

It's no secret that newspapers have been furtively looking for new ways to generate revenue and continue to be seen as the 'senior service' when it comes to quality news and journalism. Circulations are static or declining, classified advertising is hemorrhaging to the internet and the cost of running newsrooms and bureaux is escalating. The established business model for newspapers is looking decidedly creaky.

Roy Greenslade, visiting professor of journalism at London City University, former editor and blogger with The Guardian, was in Australia recently for the Walkley Foundation's Future of Journalism conflab. He's a seasoned pro with newsink in his veins, yet says; "Mass newspapers are dying and will die. They have got no future whatsoever. I think that serious newspapers have a longer life."

Other Greenslade comments:
* "I still love the newspaper format ... when I open it up I see things that I  wouldn't have normally have read, that interest me. That's more difficult on the Web, because you now tend to follow things that only interest you."
* (In Britain) Regional newspapers are collapsing because regionals were more dependent on the most lucrative form of advertising, which was classifieds."
* (on journalism) I think we will see the creation of local journalism, relatively small, much more involving of citizens, reporting their community. But we are also going to see globalization of powerful brands ... like the New York Times, Financial Times, The Guardian. For instance, we have more readers of The Guardian in the United States than we do in Britain, on the Web."
* "I think if there's a disconnect with what you're publishing on the web and what you're publishing in print, you will fail."

Greenslade's fears, at least in Britain, are backed up by yesterday's news that one of the UK's largest newspaper groups, Trinity Mirror, suffered a 12-14% advertising 'collapse' in May and June, sending its shares down 28%. In America, US Today publisher Gannett, reported a 14% advertising decline in May. New York Times reported a 13% drop.

Perhaps some of the severity of this can be put down to economic conditions and the fact that these are paid-for dailies. Free newspapers have driven a growth of 3.65% in global newspaper circulation, according to the World Association of Newspapers. However of the 100 top circulating titles, 74 are published in Asia with China, India and Japan first, second and third in world newspaper readership.

Whatever the influences and cyclical stimuli, no one can deny that newspapers are in for a rough ride in the printing industry and, when they look at revenue gains of 30% and more for their online services, shareholders may well wonder where investment money is best spent. Two US newspapers, published since the early 1900s, have recently ceased daily production and opted for a weekly round-up and commentary paper version, and a 24/7 online version. Here in Australia, Fairfax recently started two new titles, in WA and Qld, online only with no printed version.

My call
It could be that the 'killer application' highlight of drupa 2008 – the advent of the fast, full colour digital web inkjet press – if recognised and acted upon, could be the saviour of the printed newspaper industry over the coming decades.

Whether it's HP's Inkjet Web Press, Océ's JetStream, Kodak's Stream, Screen's TruePress Jet, or any future offering; the main reason is because digital on-demand, versioned production does for newspapers what it is doing for commercial print, books and will do for magazines. It enables production of printed products that can appeal, not just to the mass market with non-variable content, but to a market as low as one if you want it to. In a word, Fragmentation.

Imagine a respected newspaper masthead able to sell a full-colour advert to a small tile shop in Willoughby, NSW, for a price that will assure a space booking. That ad appears in all the Lower North Shore editions, but not in places where it is unlikely to attract custom, Sutherland shire for example; a different tile shop ad appears there.

For national chains and franchises, the prospect of advertising the local outlet in locally-distributed newspapers, with a picture of local staff is sure to appeal to the local community more than a blanket advertisement with 'visit one of our branches.'

The same goes for news stories, headlines of national importance remain and are syndicated throughout all versions, but the early general news pages, sports pages and social pages are seeded with local-area interest stories. Fragmentation is all about bringing the big picture into focus as a topic of local interest and action. Who knows, even classified ads could start returning to digitally-printed newspapers with strong local content and appeal.

A fusion of data management and digital printing could even increase subscription rates and the opportunity for innovative promotions by using random variable data and weblinks could re-engage newspapers with a public that is steadily abandoning them.

Just as newspapers have put in the hard yards and come up with some of the best websites to be found on the internet – complete with vision and sound – the clever minds of newspeople are sure to come up with more applications of digital, on-demand, variable newsprint. They have already started. Just concluded in Denver, Colorado is the second 'Global Conference for the Individuated Newspaper.' With a clunky term like Individuated, they need a make-over already but the message coming out loud and clear from this small gathering was:

"Individuated news is the inevitable evolution of newspapers. Adapt to it or die. Tomorrow's consumers will settle for nothing less if they are to remain your customers." Website: <www.personalizednewssymposium.com>

It could be viewed as a fusion between Transactional-Promotional print and the newspaper. If the two datastreams ever converge, imagine the power of one-to-one marketing using newspapers. Another buzzword being tossed around is 'Micro-zoning,' using geographic rather than individual dynamics.

Whatever its name is, the trend has not even cracked out of the shell yet - it's exciting and new. Océ began it in 2001 with its (mono) Digital Newspaper Network whereby versions of newspapers are distributed electronically and printed in various sites around the world for business travelers. At Nexpo in April, USA, Océ partook for the first time, this time with a full-colour offering.

Eyebrows are being raised, gain-sayers are vociferous and the curious are sniffing around and finger-tapping but I am of the firm belief that history, and news, is in the making right now. Check back in 2012.