Film’s final aria is not far away

'But what is undeniable is the severe deterioration in Kodak's traditional film
business, coupled with the competition it faces with a push into pixels. Back in
July Kodak raised its 2004 global film sales decline to 10 percent to 12 percent
from 7 percent to 9 percent.' Wall Street Journal, Aug 24, 2004


THE FAT LADY'S SINGING FOR FILM

In 1998, at a GASAA post-IPEX chatfest held at the Kiribilli Ex-Services Club, I
copped a lot of flak for predicting the end of film – both photographic and
graphic
arts. I estimated by as early as 2006, graphic arts film would be gone but it
might
possibly survive until 2010 in specialist applications. I might have been over-
generous.

The past two week has seen a rush of critical shifts in the film market. Agfa
has sold off its consumer photographic business, Ilford is in insolvency,
although its Swiss-based digital inkjet business is trading on, and Kodak is under the microscope by Wall Street to see how well it is managing its transition from
analogue to digital. DuPont exited the film market five years ago. Only the
Japanese Konica and Fujifilm are remaining tight-lipped on film but both have
strong digital strategies in place.

In the 1850s, William Fox Talbot, a photographic pioneer, discovered the
halftone
process that lead to graphic arts screens and film. Since then film has been the paramount method of transferring and storing images. Huge corporations were built on the ease of using film in both consumer and graphic arts markets.

But then along came digital in the latter years of the 20th century and prospects for film began to deteriorate rapidly. Face it, silver-halide photography is
on the skids in 2004 and, just as it heralded a boom for film separations 150
years ago, its decline is the harbinger of doom for many graphic arts applications.

The obvious fact is; film's a gonner. The fat lady is in full voice and while it
may
take a couple of years to phase out, if you are serious about having a future in the graphic arts industry you should by now have a full digital
strategy in place. CTP has never been more affordable and with digital proofing
on low-cost inkjet printers – or even calibrated monitors – there's no real reason
not to go digital. Some may argue that film delivers better quality in certain jobs
and I agree with them. But the quality gain is so marginal as to be irrelevant in
commercial terms.

Australian and New Zealand printers and photolabs are good at getting ahead of the pack but
there are still some in denial of the end of film, as it also means the end of
wonderfully skilled jobs and intricate techniques. But you can't buck the market.
It's possible to make profits in a declining market, servicing the legacy
customers
loath to junk their analogue equipment but they eventually devolve into 'art and
craft houses' museums and cottage industries. Small beer.

Start getting out of film now. Go digital. Stay in business long-term.

As someone else once sang; "Fings ain't what they used to be."

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Andy McCourt is a writer, researcher and analyst within the graphic
communications industry and has actively marketed graphic arts goods and
services over a 28-year career. He is proprietor of mccourt consulting &
communications and convenor of Print Month Australia which will take place in
August 2005.
Contact: andy@mccourtconsult.com

Ph: 0425 785 336