Paper consumption set to fall, report says

Stafford reports that the trend of the Australia/US dollar exchange rates has been positive over the last five years; though this has largely been as a result of a weakening US dollar and more recently, the resource boom in Australia.

Stafford imagines that the Australian dollar will stay high while the resources demand from China maintains strong exports. "There is every indication the Australian dollar will remain above USD0. 75 and therefore import prices for all grades are not likely to move up by any significant extent," he wrote.

"While the resources boom keeps the AUD strong against a floundering USD, there is unlikely to be any currency assistance for Australian Paper for price increased for cut reams."

Over 2004-05 and 2005-06, the Australian apparent consumption of cut reams declined by 2.5 per cent to 240 kt. This trend appears to be reasonably uniform across most major western markets.

Stafford pointed to changes in the workforce as a factor influencing this. He believes that the younger generation are less inclined to use as much paper and are adept when it comes to reading emails and reports on screen. "Major suppliers, while none of them want to be identified, don't necessarily believe in a paperless office; but they do think paper consumption per employee is set to decline in the future," he said.

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