Another massive drop of 13.1% in imports of coated woodfree papers (CWF) in 2014-2015 reflects declining demand for an important sector of commercial printing
The CWF import figures for printing and writing papers are recognised as a real barometer of commercial print demand as there has been no Australian production of the grade since 2010. According to this month’s issue of industry bible, Pulp & Paper Edge, the fall is part of an ongoing downward trend.
Last year imports hit a record low of 252 kt, the smallest volume in decades. Demand has fallen over the past five years following the definitive drop of 28% in just one year in 2011.
Since then while prices have remained relatively stable, demand for CWF has continued to decline, averaging 3.8% per year. Last year prices began to move up again to 8.7% reaching ADU$1083 per tonne FOB in October 2015. This price rise has undoubtedly contributed to the rapid decline in imports with volumes down 16.5% in twelve months.
While price rises and increasing digitisation are undoubtedly major demand factors, Pulp & Paper Edge, makes the point that there is the potential for the substitution of cheaper lower-value-grade papers such as uncoated woodfrees.
This is an important point. Not all of the decline in demand can be attributed to the rise of digital and electronic media, some of it relates to buyer price sensitivity in its own right, and thus to the strength of the general economy
The fall in volumes of CWF imports can be regarded as a canary in the coal mine for the professional print sector. While there is a seasonal pattern of higher and lower monthly volumes, last December 2014 saw a record low of 13.4kt imported for the month. Difficult to see this year looking much better.
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